"The new 240..."
A sentence we have heard countless times for the last half-an-year and so. The next 240 politicians that will decide the future of Europe's poorest country. Lets delve deeper on what will influence the electorate in these elections and what results can we expect.
The whole of 2020 was marked by strong distrusts in the ruling status-quo of the country. Years of held-up anger burst into the streets of Sofia and other large cities, resulting into missive protest, in the tens-of-thousands. Yet the whole movement did not achieve what was initially planed: the resignation of prime-minister and high-prosecutor. None the less the protest movement gave birth to several extra-parliamentary movements, which carry the message of the dissatisfied citizens, right into the heart of the country. Now how faithful will these new parties be to the ones who gave the initial push, that is yet to be seen. How will the protest movement influence the result of the elections? Well...expect the fact that probably three new formations will enter Parliament, the protest vote will probably help increase the already decreasing (according to pollsters) turnout. The protest movement might as well push for change into the system itself, even if GERB (EPP) wins said elections, it will be risky for Borisov to form a new government, since his last one was with record-high distrust of more than 80%. It is yet to be seen if the spirit of 2020's summer still lives on in the electoral.
The COVID-19 pandemic hit Bulgaria the hardest right in the early days of the crisis, since April 2020 the country has been in a constant shift between full-lockdown and partial re-opening. With slow vaccination and general distrusts of the public in the health-care system, Bulgaria was not only effected economically, but culturally as well. The obvious result of the pandemic is a stark decline of the turnout on April 4th, just what was seen in the legislative elections in Romania and the presidential elections in Portugal. Yet in recent days we have seen a record-high number of people wanting to vote from COVID-19 hospital-departments. Will the pandemic inspire Bulgarians to vote for change or will the electoral choose the already known, it is yet to be seen. The general expectations are that the epidemiological situation will effect negatively the turnout, as many citizens feel unsafe, especially in large crowds, which are to be expected. If we see a stark decline of the turnout, than it will be a battle of the largest party-bases, which respectably belong to GERB (EPP), BSP (S&D) and DPS (RE).
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| via @politics_bg |
A deeply divided society
Bulgaria saw a great division in her people, not one of ideological difference (even though such a division of present), but one of know vs new, status-quo vs change and so on. The COVID-19 pandemic further divided the people, into sceptics and those who follow the rules, none the less of all these voters have the chance to go and cast their vote today, for whoever they wish so.
If we look at the protests of 2020, we see a highly destabilized government on the verge of collapse, as the anti-status-quo movement grew larger ang larger, becoming the largest political force in the country in August of 2020. Yet in September and October we saw the protest movement fall down, as quickly as it rose. Anti-status-quo parties quickly fell down in the polls and gave place for a renewed GERB to once again take a comfortable lead in the polls. Yet GERB (EPP) rising does not guarantee a new Borisov government, by the fact that GERB's allies are on the verge of not making it into parliament, does leaving GERB largely isolated by the other parties.
As of now we are seeing the political spectrum of Bulgaria being divided into four blocks, roughly of equal sizes: The status-quo (GERB, VMRO, Volya-NFSB and others), The opposition (BSP, ABV and some smaller fringe parties), The anti-status-quo (ITN, DB and ISMV) and last, but not least DPS. The future of the country will depend on how these four block will cooperate with each other. As of now none of the aforementioned has pointed out that they are ready for cooperation with the others, but their opinions might change after April 4th, when the composition of parliament is known.
If we look at the protests of 2020, we see a highly destabilized government on the verge of collapse, as the anti-status-quo movement grew larger ang larger, becoming the largest political force in the country in August of 2020. Yet in September and October we saw the protest movement fall down, as quickly as it rose. Anti-status-quo parties quickly fell down in the polls and gave place for a renewed GERB to once again take a comfortable lead in the polls. Yet GERB (EPP) rising does not guarantee a new Borisov government, by the fact that GERB's allies are on the verge of not making it into parliament, does leaving GERB largely isolated by the other parties.
As of now we are seeing the political spectrum of Bulgaria being divided into four blocks, roughly of equal sizes: The status-quo (GERB, VMRO, Volya-NFSB and others), The opposition (BSP, ABV and some smaller fringe parties), The anti-status-quo (ITN, DB and ISMV) and last, but not least DPS. The future of the country will depend on how these four block will cooperate with each other. As of now none of the aforementioned has pointed out that they are ready for cooperation with the others, but their opinions might change after April 4th, when the composition of parliament is known.
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