Electoral summery 2/2

Bulgarian electoral summery part 2:

   Here in this this post i will try my best to summarize what happened on April 4th, what is to be expected during the coming week and what will come out of these results. 

PM Borisov

GERB-SDS: 

   The center-right party suffered a hurting defeat of almost 7%, but still remains the largest party in parliament with 26% of the vote and an estimated 75 MPs. GERB suffered a historical downturn across the whole country, in many medium-sized cities ITN rose to oppose them, while in Sofia DB, managed to become the largest party. Yet GERB did manage to do well in 2 areas. Former strongholds of BSP, namely the North-West and in Turkish minority regions, since DPS did not manage to gain traction after last years disastrous results. 

GERB is put on the defensive at this point, at this moment their task is to propose a new type of governance of the state, since many voters showed them, that the way they governed the country for the last 12 years works no more. GERB's best shot at this moment is to unite all other parties into a single "program government", which may allow them to stay in power, at least for the presidential elections in November. 

Trifonov, chairman of ITN

ITN:

   ITN is the undoubted winner in these elections, the party managed to win more than 17% of the vote in their first time running, putting themselves in the role of kingmaker or even coalition-builder, if GERB passes the 2nd mandate to form a government to them. ITN is the largest representative of the spirit of the 2020-protests, together with the center-right DB and centrist ISMV, with which ITN has confirmed that they are ready to cooperate with. At this point ITN is put in the crossroads, either they choose to form a government (as a leader or a minor-partner) or they choose to enter in opposition from the get-go and in this way probably causing new elections. Trifonov's party managed to surpass the BSP by votes, pushing the socialist in 3rd place for the second time in the history of the "Centenarian".

chairwoman of BSP-Ninova

BSP:
   The Socialists (as they are often referred to), are in the worst position they have ever been, since the fall of the communist regime in 1990. The party hits an all-time-low of just 15%, winning probably around 43 MPs. 

   The party of Ninova experienced a stark transformation for the last 5 years. When Ninova took charge of the party back in 2016, BSP was a highly decentralized party with a complex internal structure, where conflicts between the ruling "class" and inner opposition ware a daily manner. Ninova changed that, just for several months BSP de-complexized itself. The party took the look of a "typical Bulgarian party" where the word of the chairman weighted the most in almost every argument. At the star this strategy worked for the "Red Lady", giving her 27% of the vote in the 2017-lagistative elections. But the momentum was lost, as in the local and European elections of 2019, the BSP suffered two fairly-strong defeats, while their opponents-GERB, stood at the same level. It looks like that the absolute collapse of the Socialists in these elections was the final step of a process we have been witnessing for almost 2 years now.

    BSP just as ITN is put on a crossroad in the new parliament. The first option is for the party to change itself and its program in order to soften its look to other voters, except the usual base of the party. The second option is far less optimistic, if the party does not change, there is a chance for the BSP to fall even bellow  the 10%. At this point BSP said only one thing, that there wont be a coalition with GERB.

co-chairman of DB-Ivanov

DB and ISMV:

The two new protest parties, one being slightly older-DB, have scored their greatest electoral successes in these elections. DB with 9.5% and 27 MPs and ISMV with 4.8% and 12 MPs (as on recent calculations). Both movements have taken a strong stance on cooperating with DPS or GERB in the new parliament, as for both of them, this cooperation is a red line, not to be crossed. DB took the lead in Sofia, giving a voice to the long forgotten center-right liberal base of the city. ISMV in the same moment enjoyed a broader support across the country, with the Black Sea-region strongly voting for them. The two coalitions have a similar way of analyzing the current situation, as both would probably support an ITN government, if it comes to that.

honorary chairman of DPS-Dogan

DPS

The Turkish minority party did had a fairly good result in these elections, winning 10.4% of the vote and 29 MPs (according to calculations), this however was not expected. The general mood before the elections, was that these election will be the place where DPS will regain their importance in parliamentary affairs once again, after collapsing with almost 5% in the elections of 2017. Yet we didn't saw such a think, as DPS rose only by little more than a single digit, thus missing the opportunity of gaining 14% of the vote or even more. With ITN claiming the 2nd place and DB right behind DPS, Dogan's party has lost its position as kingmaker in the new parliament. This does not mean that the party will fall out of importance, as unlike the other DPS has often proved that they are ready to bend over their own program in order to form a stable government.