Electoral Summery 1/2

Last night Bulgarians went to the polls in order to choose their next (45th) National Assembly. With a historic turnout and surprises on all fronts let us delve deeper into the 2021-Parliamentary Elections of Bulgaria 

Turnout

via @politics_bg

    With pollsters showing a historically low turnout of around 40% or even less, the future of the Bulgarian democracy hanged in the balance, but yet the voters proved that statement wrong. As of now the finally turnout is unknow, but it is expected for it to rise above 47%, this meaning that more than 3 million Bulgarians went to the polls yesterday, proving that they still have an active society. Even though it was a rainy day, not counting the COVID-19 restrictions, there were meters-long lines in front of the polls. This was the first time electoral machines were used in parliamentary elections in the country, and even though in several oblast (namely V. Târnovo and Dobrič) the machines were put out of use, at the end of the day only 1/9 of all machines were turn off, thus proving that the method is effective. 

   Bulgarians for the first time in their modern democratic history voted during an epidemiological lockdown, which meant that the process was slowed down, but even when some voters waited for hours to cast their vote, those who gave-up were in the single digits. Turnout was even higher in the Abroad-community of Bulgaria (almost 2 million Bulgarians at this time). As in big cities like Hamburg, Chicago and London, kilometer-long lines were made where the Bulgarians abroad waited for casting their votes. 

What were the surprises? 

Now when more than  40% of the vote was counted, it is clear that this election was a referendum on the now 12-year-old  status-quo of Bulgaria. Some "old" parties managed to live through the wave, while others collapsed to historic low numbers.



1-GERB: Bulgaria's largest center-right party suffered its largest defeat in these elections, falling down to historic lows, and yet still remaining the largest force in Bulgaria's political spectrum. However GERB did achieve some victories as well. Defeating their historic rival-BSP, in all oblasts where BSP won in 2017. The "red wall" of BSP, the former industrial heartland of Bulgaria, the North-West, switched as out of nowhere from BSP to GERB, and that not even in close numbers, as in places like Montana, GEBR leads by more that 10 points.

2-The Anti-establishment: The anti-establishment parties, namely ITN, DB and ISMV managed to prove that the spirit of the 2020-protests lives on, with the combined vote of the 3 parties being almost  35%, thus making it the largest voting block in Parliament. Out of the three, ITN came out as the unquestioned leader of the movement, with by all early results the part takes a secured 2nd place. Now it depends if these 3 parties are ready to form a new government, or are they more in the mood for new elections.

Rest of the results shall be discussed after 100% of the vote is counted.